16.02.26 - 20.02.26
Results of the previous week
| XAGUSD +11.84% | BRN +4.48% | USDJPY +1.31% |
COCOA -13.54% | NG -5.72% | VIX -3.17% |
Last week, US indices were largely subdued and consolidated within narrow ranges. Geopolitical risks are holding back growth. Contradictory macroeconomic data also dampened optimism. While American industrial production increased, unemployment claims rose, and the trade deficit widened.
In the forex market, the dollar strengthened against European and commodity currencies. It received moderate support after the minutes from the US Federal Reserve's latest meeting were released. Some Fed officials spoke in favour of raising rates at the January meeting. Gold resumed its moderate growth amid geopolitical instability.
Brent crude oil prices briefly reached $72.33. The energy resource's price is receiving support on fears of an escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. Trump stated that he's prepared to give Iran 15 days to conclude a nuclear agreement. An additional positive factor for oil prices is the decline in US crude oil and petroleum product stocks. According to the country's Department of Energy, commercial crude oil inventories fell by 9.014 million barrels last week.
Key events of the current week
| The US. CB Consumer Confidence Index USD/JPY | DATE 24.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
High inflation and geopolitical tensions are negatively impacting consumer sentiment in the US. This is a worrying sign for the service-oriented US economy, where domestic consumption accounts for most of the country's GDP. As a result, global analysts expect the consumer confidence index to fall. A decline in key macroeconomic indicators is bad news for the dollar. In this scenario, USD/JPY could decline towards 153.40. | |||||
| The Eurozone. Inflation rate EUR/USD | DATE 25.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The eurozone economy is still fairly weak. Year-over-year GDP growth rates are below 1.4%. Global analysts expect inflation to decline. ECB officials have previously offered similar forecasts and spoken about the possibility of a new round of monetary easing. A decline in inflation could bring an ECB rate cut closer. This is unfavourable for the euro since the differential between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve's key interest rates will widen. In this environment, EUR/USD could decline to 1.1660. | |||||
| The US. Producer Price Index XAU/USD | DATE 27.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The latest data from the US Consumer Price Index showed a decline. This confirms the US Federal Reserve's assumption that inflation will gradually ease. Global analysts also expect the PPI to decline, which would support the trend of easing inflation. A drop in inflation could push the Fed to embark on another round of monetary easing. Expectations of a rate cut are unfavourable for the dollar, but good news for dollar-denominated assets, such as gold. In this context, XAU/USD could rise to 5175,00. | |||||
