23.02.26 - 27.02.26
Results of the previous week
| PL +10.88% | MRNA +6.81% | VIX +2.23% |
BCHUSD -23.25% | COCOA -8.91% | COFFEE -2.00% |
US indices saw subdued performance again last week. Geopolitical risks continue to hold back growth. Early in the week, indices came under pressure after Donald Trump threatened additional tariffs on countries looking to take advantage of the US Supreme Court's decision to overturn his previous tariffs.
The forex market also saw mixed dynamics last week. The dollar strengthened slightly against the yen and gold, but suffered losses against the Australian dollar and the euro. The Australian dollar was buoyed by inflation data, which suggested that the RBA may hike rates again this year after doing so at its February meeting. The dollar strengthened against European and commodity currencies. It received moderate support after the minutes from the US Federal Reserve's latest meeting were released. Some Fed officials spoke in favour of raising rates at the January meeting. Gold resumed its moderate growth amid geopolitical instability.
Brent crude oil prices once again tried to consolidate above $72.00. The energy resource is getting a boost from the anticipation of a new round of negotiations between the US and Iran on a nuclear deal. Tensions between the two countries remain high, which is pushing prices up.
Key events of the current week
| Australia. GDP growth rate AUD/USD | DATE 04.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The RBA's monetary policy easing from 2024 to the end of 2025 has had its impact. GDP growth accelerated throughout last year, and global analysts expect this trend to continue. Improving key macroeconomic indicators will allow the Australian regulator to continue raising its key rate. It already took a step in this direction in February. This would be a positive signal for the Australian dollar.In this context, the AUD/USD pair could climb to 0.7260. | |||||
| The US. Services PMI USD/JPY | DATE 04.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The services sector remains stable, with the PMI indicator remaining in the growth zone. This is a good signal since this sector accounts for about 75% of GDP. While global analysts expect the indicator to remain above 50, i.e., in growth territory, they also anticipate that it will decline compared to the previous period. This won't be a clear signal for the Fed to rush into another round of rate cuts, but it will still be unfavourable for the dollar in the short term. In this scenario, USD/JPY could decline to 154.00. | |||||
| The US. Non-farm payrolls XAU/USD | DATE 06.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US labour market is showing signs of cooling. Fewer jobs are being created, and global analysts expect this negative trend to continue. The labour market's health continues to be a key factor that influences the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Declining macroeconomic indicators are putting pressure on the dollar, which increases the chances of an interest rate cut. At the same time, a weaker dollar is good news for dollar-denominated assets, particularly gold. In this context, XAU/USD could return to around 5,450.00. | |||||
